The main purpose of this analysis was to compare deterministic and probabilistic methods for calculating allowable gross loads (AGLs) in an actual contingency airfield scenario. Current analysis methods for pavement evaluation provide a single deterministic answer for allowable aircraft loads. Variations in actual conditions, such as subgrade modulus and the magnitude of expected loading, are not considered. The following AGL analysis for Somali airfields illustrates how the method works, what is required for a problem description, and most important, how the systematic consideration of uncertainties can improve the pavement analyses provided to operation commands.